PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a proprietary system that projects player and team performance. PECOTA has become well known throughout the baseball community with their yearly predictions on every player’s individual statistics and teams overall performance and record come the end of the season. PECOTA looks at all the numbers from previous seasons for teams to predict how they will perform the next year. For now, I will focus solely on every team’s win toal PECOTA is predicting them to have and pick if the team will finish over or under the predicted win total.
AL East
New York Yankees, Predicted 96-66
Milligan’s Outlook
What if I told you the Yankees failed to sign either of the two superstar free agents this offseason, but still had a successful offseason? Well they did just that. They added bullpen arm after bullpen arm and their bullpen instantly becomes a huge strength to this team. They also have one of the most potent lineups in baseball. They have all the potential to hit 250 home runs this season again.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook
The Yankees had a solid offseason buy stocking up their bullpen and adding pitchers to their starting rotation. Fans were disappointed by not getting Machado or Harper but I feel it will be a blessing in disguise, the Bronx bombers will be a juggernaut on offense and I think they will break the homerun record they set last season at 266 HR’s.
Prediction: OVER
Boston Red Sox, Preditied 90-72
Milligan’s Outlook
The defending World Series champions won 108 games last season so regression is going to happen but 18 games? I don’t think so. Their bullpen is thin so expect them to be busy around the trade deadline. Their offense is one of the best in baseball and is returning basically everyone from their World Series team. The Red Sox should have no problem getting to 90 wins.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook
Their bullpen took a step back with the loss of Joe Kelly and possibly Kimbrel depending on where he signs. I think after winning a championship there’s an expectation to stay at the top, some of their best players like Bogarts and Martinez will who had great a great last season will slightly regress but the Red Sox will make a playoff run once again.
Prediction: OVER
Tampa Bay Rays, Predicted 85-77
Milligan’s Outlook
The Rays surprised everyone last year with their strong season. They were one of the best teams post all star break and plan to continue riding their new idea of pitching, the opener. A difficult team to predict for me, but with Blake Snell leading their rotation and Tommy Pham leading their lineup the Rays could make a push for a Wild card spot.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook
The Ray’s played hard and almost fought their way to a postseason berth, signing Charlie Morton was a good signing to compliment Blake Snell CY Young award winner. Tommy Pham and a revamped Kevin Kiermaier will lead this team in the offensive category and try to push for a wildcard in a crowded AL East division.
Prediction: OVER
Toronto Blue Jays, Predicted 76-86
Milligan’s Outlook
The story of the season for the Blue Jays is when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will make his long awaited debet. He is the frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year and even has the ability to make his first all star team this season if he lives up to the hype. The Jays continued to strip down their roster this offseason and will continue with their rebuild.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
Vlad Jr. will be stuck under the Kris Bryant rule where teams will only play their young star a certain amount of games so he can remain under contract longer with his current team so Blue Jay fans should enjoy Vlad when he’s on the active roster. This team will rebuild to get back to their success during the 2015/2016 seasons.
Prediction: UNDER
Baltimore Orioles, Predicted 57-105
Milligan’s Outlook
Losers of 115 games last season, PECOTA is predicting the O’s to win 10 more games this season. I simply don’t see it, especially in this tough division.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
When you look up tanking for pro teams, this should be the first team on that list. Roster is lacking star power and it doesn’t help when there are three potential playoff teams in your own division.
Prediction: UNDER
AL Central
Cleveland Indians, Predicted 97-65
Milligan’s Outlook
The Indians are coming off another division title, but a disappointing postseason appearance. Their goals are bigger than just winning the division, which they should have no problem to do. Their rotation is one of the best in baseball and their lineup process two MVP candidates, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. They’ll win the division with ease, but won’t make it to 97 wins.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
The Indians are the AL Central division winners three years in a row in a weak division, they have a top starting rotation. Ramirez, Lindor, and Kipnis will all begin the year on the injury list so who will step up and lead on offense? Make it four division titles in a row but not 97 wins.
Prediction: UNDER
Minnesota Twins, Predicted 82-80
Milligan’s Outlook
The Twins quietly had a very good offseason, adding the likes of Jonathan Schoop and Nelson Cruz. Their lineup is greatly improved, their rotation is always the question mark. Jose Berrios is one of the best young pitchers in the game and should really take his game to the next level this season.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook
Jose Berrios could be a candidate for a CY Young award, I like the signings of Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz to help the batting lineup. Buxton has yet to have a great season due to injuries, this could be a make or break it year for him. Jorge Polanco is young player I would watch as a twins fan, only 25 years old he has a lot of prime baseball in his future. Bullpen is a weak point that might hinder their season.
Prediction: UNDER
Kansas City Royals, Predicted 72-90
Milligan’s Outlook
2015 seems centuries ago for Royal fans, yet it was only 4 years ago and the Royals were fresh off a World Series victory. Since then, the Royals have not been close to making it back to
the playoffs. They also do not indict that they are close this season as well.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
They Royal’s owner voiced his displeasure with the team’s performance last year and vowed they would not be that bad again, Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi are a solid double play pair and their hoping Nicky Lopez can make a jump to the majors so Merrifield can play outfield. Still a ways away from contending with the Indians.
Prediction: UNDER
Chicago White Sox, Predicted 70-92
Milligan’s Outlook
The White Sox rebuild is still in the midst and feels like it needs to elevole sometime soon. 2019 doesn’t seem like it will be the case. They won 62 games last year and missed out on their top target Manny Machado. The White Sox need to make strides this season, but I don’t see them doing so.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook:
When will Eloy Jimenez became a major leaguer? Probably not this year but he is the core of their rebuilding process that still needs help with some free agents in next year’s class such as Anthony Rendon and Xander Bogaerts.
Prediction: UNDER
Detroit Tigers, Predicted 66-96
Milligan’s Outlook
Not much firepower on offense or pitching for the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is no longer the hitter he once was. It’s going to be a long season in Detroit.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
Time to celebrate Miguel Cabrera for his contributions over the years because the Tigers have a roster that will be dedicated to developing their young talent for the future.
Prediction: UNDER
AL West
Houston Astros, Predicted 98-64
Milligan’s Outlook
Houston is still a very good ballclub, and they have all the talent to win 100+ games again this season. Their starting rotation after losing Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers is thin though and while they win the division easily, they don’t make it to 98 wins.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
When healthy, they are one of the most dangerous clubs in baseball and have multiple all stars who are still in their prime. They lost two starting pitchers to free agency and injury but they have some pitching prospects that are big ready such as Forrest Whitley to replace them. They signed Michael Brantley to play outfield with Josh Reddick and George Springer. Once again division winners and competing for a World Series in October.
Projection: OVER
Los Angeles Angels, Predicted 80-82
Milligan’s Outlook
After finishing back to back season at 80-82, PECOTA predicts the Angels to finish with the exact same record for a third straight season. The question will the Angels is not their offense, it’s there starting rotation. However, they did extend their top, top priority Mike Trout to a 12 year deal and this will inspire his teammates to play inspired baseball this season.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook
Injuries are the achilles heel to this ballclub, every year it seems that there is high hopes for their new roster but yet again they get the injury bug and another year is wasted for Mike Trout. Rotation seems to have stayed the same as last year and will Ohtani have a big year at DH this season to help the offense? I think the injury bug will miss the Angels and they will get to 85 wins this year.
Prediction: OVER
Oakland A’s, Predicted 78-84
Milligan’s Outlook
The A’s made the AL Wild card game last year, something nobody predicted. This season, PECOTA see the A’s taking a step back. They did lose 3 starters to injury or free agency this offseason so their weakness will once again be their raotion. Their lineup headlined by breakout candidate, Matt Chapman is the real deal and will have no trouble scoring runs. Their starting staff will need to have a magical season like last year.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Billy Beane used moneyball tactic and fooled all of baseball last year by getting the final wildcard spot with 97 wins. This year they have bullpen issues due to injury and their rotation has a lot of unroven pitchers, but they have a 21 year old lefty pitcher named Jesus Lazardo who could be their future ace if the team decides to call him up. Cam Matt Chapman and Khris Davis help the A’s slug their way into the postseason again? Maybe but they will definitely get more than 78 wins.
Prediction: OVER
Seattle Mariners, Predicted 72-90
Milligan’s Outlook
General manager, Jerry Dipoto is always looking for a good trade and he made plenty this offseason. The Mariners after finishing last season with 89 wins are entering a full rebuild.
Prediction:OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
They traded Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, and James Paxton and lost Nelson Cruz to free agency. Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger are left on a rebuilding team but they should still keep up their great play.
Prediction: OVER
Texas Rangers, Predicted 70-92
Milligan’s Outlook
Adrian Beltre is gone. The Rangers will continue their rebuild in 2019.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook:
They don’t have a particularly strong farm system, and their top prospects are still another year away from contributing at the big leagues. The way things are shaping up, this team won’t be ready to compete for a couple years and will focus on their building up their farm system.
Prediction: UNDER
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies, Predicted 89-73
Milligan’s Outlook
Arguable the most improved team going into 2019. They said they weren’t afraid to spend this offseason and they meant it. New comers, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew Mccutchen, and David Robinson will contribute greatly this season. The Phillies have a nice mix of young players and veterans and are a dangerous team in the NL.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Philly had a busy offseason and lived up to spending “stupid money” by singing Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and Bryce Harper. They also traded for Jean Segura and JT Realmuto, young players Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera. This team will be a force to be reckoned with for a long time.
Prediction: OVER
Washington Nationals, Predicted 89-73
Milligan’s Outlook
They lost Bryce Harper but do not seem too concerned about it and Juan Soto is why. The 20 year old has greatness written all over him and is now the face of their outfield. Patrick Corbin makes an already good rotation better. Afer a down season in 2018, the Nationals will be in playoff contention all season long.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Losing Bryce Harper would have crippled most teams but not the Nationals, they have young studs Juan Soto and Victor Robles to replace him in the outfield, also they added Patrick Corbin to now have a three headed monster for starting pitching consisting of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin.
Prediction: OVER
New York Mets, Predicted 87-75
Milligan’s Outlook
No doubt the Mets are an improved baseball team, but health is always a factor for them. Their starting rotation, while has the most potential in baseball, can never stay healthy. The offense will be better with the additions of Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, and Jed Lowrie, but 85 wins is a little too high expectations.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook:
The Mets really went in this offseason by making multiple acquisitions to strengthen their offense to equal the power their starting rotation. This team will go as far as their pitches can stay healthy.
Prediction: UNDER
Atlanta Braves, Predicted 85- 77
Milligan’s Outlook
The division winners last season, PECOTA expects the Braves to regress, which is understandable. They were a year early last year, but still made improvements to their club this offseason. Josh Donaldson is a low risk, high reward sign and will be great in the clubhouse to the young guys. Their starting rotation is not as good as the Nationals or Mets, but will keep them in games all season long.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Robert Acuna Jr. exploded onto the scene last year and won the NL Rookie of the Year, Josh Donaldson playing 3B will give the Braves a pretty good infield with Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson. Their rotation is average and that is what is keeping them from being better than the Nationals or Phillies. I still like their team they will continue their success from last year.
Prediction: OVER
Miami Marlins, Predicted 67-95
Milligan’s Outlook
Winning 63 games last season was actually better than many expect for the Marlins last year. They are in full rebuild mode and not concern with wins or loses.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook:
Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson will lead their future prospects from a farm system that was ranked in the upper half of baseball when they are ready for the future. As of now the only thing to look forward to is their new logo and jerseys and also not having to look at the home run sculpture in dead center as they moved it outside the stadium.
Prediction: UNDER
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers, Predicted 88-74
Milligan’s Outlook
Their bullpen is their strength. Their starting rotation is their weakness. They once again did not make a big play to sign a free agent starting pitcher and they will regret it. They won the division last year in game 163 against the Cubs and it took an incredible September run, where it felt they never lost. Expect them to take a step backwards this year.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook:
The Brewers are a tricky team, they took care of their catching problem by signing Yasmani Grandal and brought back Mike Moustakas to play 3B, but they didn’t address their starting rotation. Gio Gonzalez left in free agency and besides Chacin, they don’t have a proven pitcher in the rotation, will have to rely on their bullpen too much which could hurt them.
Prediction: UNDER
St. Louis Cardinals, Predicted 86-76
Milligan’s Outlook
After missing the postseason for three consecutive seasons, the Cardinals are eager to get back and made a trade that will help them do so. Acquiring Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks was a big move that many believe will put them over the top in the division.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Cardinals went big and got Paul Goldschmidt, one of the best 1B in baseball, they also signed Andrew Miller who, if he stays healthy, can be a big addition to the bullpen. They have a solid team and should be back in postseason contention.
Prediction: OVER
Cincinnati Reds, Predicted 81-81
Milligan’s Outlook
4 straight seasons of win totals in the 60’s, the Reds are feeling good entering 2019. Not a hot take, just a realization, the Reds still are not a .500 ballclub. Their pitching will still let them down.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook:
They had a big trade to acquire Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood from the Dodgers while giving up Homer Bailey and prospects. I think Puig will be a nice fit in Cincinnati due to him being an everyday starter on this roster. Scooter Gennett will miss the first few months of the season so that will be a big loss. They’re in a talented division and lack the firepower to keep up with the other teams.
Prediction: UNDER
Pittsburgh Pirates, Predicted 80-82
Milligan’s Outlook
One of the more forgotten teams in 2018, the Pirates were around .500 all season and the same will be in 2019. Their starting rotation is one of the most underrated in baseball. They can be very good, while their offense is average at best.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
They traded for Chris Archer at the deadline to try to make it into the postseason but fell short. They have high hopes for their outfielders Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, and Lonnie Chisenhall to stay healthy and repeat their production from last season. Will rely on their decent rotation and revamped bullpen to carry them to the playoffs.
Prediction: UNDER
Chicago Cubs, Predicted 79-83
Milligan’s Outlook
Arguably the most shocking prediction for record by PECOTA this year. The Cubs won 95 games just a season ago and that was without Yu Darvish for almost the whole year and Kris Bryant missing a big amount of time because of injury. While the Cubs did not add any big name free agent, 79 wins and last in the division is ludacris. They’ll be battling the Cardinals for the division all season long.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Out of all the predictions, I found this one the most confusing, they missed Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish the majority of the season and still won 95 games. Brandon Morrow and Carl Edwards Jr. should help bolster the bullpen and keep the Cubs on top of the division.
Prediction: OVER
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers, Predicted 94-68
Milligan’s Outlook
After back to back World Series appearances without winning, the Dodgers are all in to capture their first World Series victory since 1988. They have the roster to return to the Fall Classic for a third straight season. Even with Clayton Kershaw no longer the ace he once was, the Dodgers have one of the best rotation in baseball and a healthy Corey Seager could be huge for the Dodgers this season.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
The Dodgers had a quiet offseason for some fans but signed AJ Pollock and Joe Kelly to multi year deals which benefits the outfield and bullpen. They have Corey Seager bach which will give them a major boost, this team is built to have depth at most and have an emerging ace in Walker Buehler. This team will be one of the favorites to win it all for the first time since 1988.
Prediction: OVER
Colorado Rockies, Predicted 85-77
Milligan’s Outlook
Fresh off a wild card victory over the Chicago Cubs a season ago, the Rockies expect to compete once again with the Dodgers for the division. Their lineup never has trouble scoring runs and this year will be no different. The addition of Daniel Murphy, an under-the-radar move, will be huge for them. Their young rotation is always growing up and getting better everyday.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
The Rockies will not skip a beat and should remain in contention for the NL West title. Daniel Murphy will give them a solid infield and David Dahl could be a breakout player for them at outfield and they have a young and up and coming starting rotation that can surprise some people.
Prediction: OVER
Arizona Diamondbacks, Predicted 81-81
Milligan’s Outlook
They fell apart the end of last season and decided to ship away franchise player, Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy meant so much to the D-backs and their fans and he will be missed. The Dbacks starting rotation is still very good even after losing Patrick Corbin in free agency. Their offense is lacking though without Goldy and with A.J. Pollack leaving town too.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Overlook:
Losing Patrick Corbin, Paul Goldschmidt, AJ Pollock will hurt the Diamondbacks, the team looks to be shedding itself of big contracts and maybe Zack Greinke is next. I think the Diamondbacks are trying their best to not fully go into a rebuilding mode, but that looks like the ultimatum for the franchise.
Prediction: UNDER
San Diego Padres, Predicted 79-83
Milligan’s Outlook
The Padres shocked everyone and signed Manny Machado this offseason and good for them. They needed a franchise player their fans could get behind. Machado makes their offense instantly better, but their pitching is still really thin.
Prediction: UNDER
Christian’s Outlook
Signing Manny Machado will bring Padre fans to games and have them believing they have a future and a star. They’re are a really young team with the top farm system in the MLB. Fernando Tatis Jr. will make his debut in the big leagues at some point. Padres will be a team to look out for in a couple years just not now.
Prediction: UNDER
San Francisco Giants, Predicted 73-89
Milligan’s Outlook
Manger, Bruce Bochy’s final season with the Giants will be a bittersweet one. He led them to 3 World Series victories and will be in CoopersTown one day. As for the team, many players from their last championship team in 2014 are still there and that just means they are old now. The Giants are an old team, but they still have better players than many think. They won’t be competing for the division, but they will be closer to .500.
Prediction: OVER
Christian’s Outlook:
Bruce Bochy will be in the hall of fame when he becomes eligible so congrats to Bruce on a great career. The Giants once world series roster is now starting to come apart, they let Hunter Pence go and they have 11 players over 30 and are starting to decline due to age and they don’t have a strong farm system so they will have to start from scratch when they begin to rebuild their roster.
Prediction: UNDER
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